What does the current Victoria real estate market look like?
As part of our monthly Market Insight Series, I am excited to continue to bring you regular insights into the Victoria and Vancouver Island market trends, so you can make better buying and selling decisions. Below I will jump into the most important market numbers to look into, I will provide glossary term definitions, and will conclude with resources if you want to further research current trends and stats. If you want to see what the Market Insight for the previous month was, click here.
2024 Victoria Real Estate Market: a Year in Review
Let’s break it down: 421 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this December. That’s a 28% jump from the 329 sold in December 2023. Although it’s a 23.6% drop compared to November 2024, that's not surprising, as December is typically the slowest season for real estate anyway. When we dig into specifics, condominium sales surged 25% from December 2023, with 135 units sold, while single-family home sales rose 20.9%, totaling 191 sold properties. These are significant numbers that tell a story about sustained and growing demand.
Here’s the bigger picture for 2024: a total of 6,893 properties were sold, marking an 11% increase from the 6,207 sales in 2023. That’s not just a small uptick—this stability and growth over time are solid grounds for increasing market confidence.
Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Laurie Lidstone summed it up perfectly: “2024 was a calm, stable year for real estate.” Calm might not sound exciting, but it’s exactly what buyers and sellers crave—predictable pricing and smoother transactions. Over the last two years, prices have been holding steady, making it easier for people to move into the market with greater certainty.
But let’s not ignore inventory: December closed with 2,290 active listings, down 19.3% from November, but still a 7.4% increase over December 2023. Despite this growth, inventory levels remain low when measured against long-term averages. What does that mean? Although the increase in inventory levels is a welcome change to what we've seen in recent years, that's not the whole picture. If demand ticks up, we could see pricing pressure again, so we're seeing a continued push toward greater density development from both the Provincial and municipal levels of government to address this housing shortage issue.
Now, let’s talk about home values. The MLS® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single-family home in the Victoria Core rose 2.7% year-over-year, climbing from $1,272,000 in December 2023 to $1,306,400 in December 2024. Even month-to-month, we saw a slight bump of 0.3% from November. On the flip side, condominium benchmark values dipped 1.6% year-over-year, going from $556,500 in December 2023 to $547,800 in December 2024. But, notably, condos saw a 0.6% increase from November—a sign of steady demand in that segment.
What’s driving this? Policy changes like extended amortization periods, increased borrowing potential, and added adjustments to property transfer tax thresholds are making homes more accessible to more people. Add consistent interest rate declines, and we’re looking at conditions that could help more first-time buyers break into the market.
Major Canadian Market Trends
National home sales rose 2.8% month-over-month from October to November
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly sales activity is up 26% from November 2023.
Home sales rose 12% from the third to the fourth quarter of 2024, driven mainly by B.C. and Ontario.
Sales growth is projected to be the strongest in B.C. and Ontario in 2025 as pent-up demand is unleashed.
Victoria Has 4.1 Months of housing supply. Housing supply below 6 months often suggests movement toward a seller's market.
The home absorption rate was 24% in December, another indication of movement toward a seller's market (14-20% is considered a balanced market), and December is typically the slowest month for home sales.
Major Trends for Investors
The BC real estate market is not very attractive for local investors.
Although interest rates are declining, they remain high enough that it's difficult to cover property costs with rental income.
With the recent decline in immigration and more rental homes being built, rental income rates are down 8-10% in some areas.
This decline seems likely to hold and may continue, with over 14% of rental properties currently in construction right now.
Put differently, the cost of rental properties is up, rental incomes are down, and with a large number of new rental properties coming online, this is likely to put additional downward pressure on rental income in the next few years.
Here’s the main takeaway: the Victoria market is balanced—for now. However, low inventory paired with potential increases in demand could quickly shift the dynamics. If you're buying a home for yourself, this is a good time to consider moving. If you're thinking about buying a rental property, then you need to be sure that the numbers support your plan. If you’re eyeing a move in 2025, contact a trusted Realtor to build a strategy that fits your goals.
The numbers don’t lie: 2024 was a year of growing opportunity, and the groundwork is laid for a dynamic 2025. Buckle up—this market isn’t slowing down.
Opportunities for ordinary people looking to get into their first home, or move up into an affordable nicer home are still out there, it just takes a bit of diligence, and ideally the support of a committed agent.
Conclusion
The goal is to give you insight into what the overall market view looks like in Victoria and Vancouver Island. I have included more Resources below so that you can dive in and read more at your leisure. I will also make sure to include a new Glossary Term each month, and define it to add to your knowledge of common industry terms.
Feel free to contact me if you want to learn more or if you have any questions about the broader market trends.
Glossary Term
Walk Score
Walk Score or walkability score is a numerical rating that indicates how walkable a neighborhood is, considering its proximity to amenities such as shops, restaurants, and public transportation. It's often measured on a scale of 0 to 100, where zero is the worst (i.e., middle of nowhere), and 100 is the best (i.e., excellent downtown location).
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Resources
1. VREB Insight:
2. Mortgage Calculator:
3. Mortgage Rate By Bank:
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